Prediction Market Strategy Bot Framework

Multi-objective molecular optimization is a critical process in drug discovery that aims to modify a given molecule to simultaneously improve multiple properties while maintaining a similar overall structure. This process often requires iterative modifications guided by computational or experimental feedback. Recent large language model (LLM)-based methods have begun to explore this iterative approach; however, these methods are not explicitly trained to leverage such feedback, while existing approaches primarily focus on single-turn molecular optimization. To address this gap, we introduce Multi-turn Feedback Guided (MFG) molecular optimization, a reinforcement learning framework that trains an LLM to progressively optimize molecules using feedback from previous turns. MFG introduces a feedback vector capturing both property improvements and source molecule similarity, alongside a feedback-aligned reward function that promotes progressive improvement across turns. We apply MFG over $\text{GeLLM}^{3}\text{O}$, a state-of-the-art LLM model for multi-objective molecular optimization, evaluate $\text{GeLLM}^{3}\text{O-MFG}$ on ten multi-objective molecular optimization tasks. The results demonstrate that $\text{GeLLM}^{3}\text{O-MFG}$ achieves the highest average similarity-constrained success rate ($81.50%$), outperforming the base model $\text{GeLLM}^{3}\text{O}$ ($70.81%$).

Recent advances in world models have enabled increasingly realistic visual synthesis. However, these generated environments remain largely silent. Bringing sound to world models poses three core challenges: real-time generation to keep pace with interactive video streams, interactive control to respond to mid-stream sound instructions, and spatially aligned stereo to reflect scene geometry and camera motion. To address these demands, we introduce WorldSonus, an interactive video-to-audio framework designed for real-time spatial sound synthesis in world models. For real-time generation, WorldSonus employs a streaming causal autoregressive diffusion architecture that synthesizes audio chunks at a low real-time factor (RTF) of 0.41. For interactive control, we incorporate an audio-centric captioning pipeline with chunk-indexed prompt scheduling, enabling dynamic manipulation of sound events during generation. For spatial alignment, we leverage high-quality stereo supervision curated from diverse stereo and ambisonic data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that while tailored for world models, WorldSonus generalizes effectively to open-domain video-to-audio benchmarks, matching or outperforming state-of-the-art bidirectional models in both acoustic quality and spatial alignment. Project page: https://noizai.github.io/WorldSonus/

Answering questions about long videos often requires connecting events involving the same objects across hours or days. Chronological descriptions and text-derived entities can leave physical identity unresolved: different objects may share a description, while observations of the same object remain disconnected across events. Retrieving relevant events therefore does not necessarily recover the "biography" of the particular entity a question concerns. To address this, we introduce Grounded Entity Biographies (GEB), a long-video memory framework that groups visually grounded observations of the same physical instance across clips into retrievable biographies while preserving the context of each moment. During question answering, the biography is retrieved alongside episodic evidence, allowing the model to follow an entity through events using identity links established during memory construction. Evaluations across four benchmarks, including day-long and week-long recordings, demonstrate improvements over prior memory frameworks in both multiple-choice and open-ended question answering. On EgoLifeQA, GEB achieves 72.0% accuracy, 4.4 percentage points above the best published result. Ablations show that grounded identity association and biography reading both contribute to the gains, which additional descriptions alone do not fully recover.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, they often struggle with extremely long contexts due to fixed context limits. To address this, sequential approaches like MemAgent extend the effective context by reading text in segments and iteratively updating a fixed-size memory. However, this sequential paradigm suffers from high latency and requires costly reinforcement learning (RL) training, which can lead to overfitting on specific datasets. To overcome these limitations, we propose ConvMem, a training-free, highly parallelizable framework that reformulates long-context reasoning as a hierarchical convolution. Inspired by CNNs, ConvMem treats an LLM prompted with a specific query as a convolutional kernel. This kernel summarizes text segments hierarchically, shortening the reasoning path from a linear chain into a logarithmic tree. Specifically, ConvMem integrates \textit{Configurable Strides} and \textit{Skip Connections} to ensure robust evidence capture and propagation, while employing \textit{Multi-Kernel Convolution} to decompose complex queries into disentangled semantic channels. This design not only mitigates error accumulation but also enables massive parallelization across both text segments and reasoning threads. Experiments on RULER-HotpotQA and RULER-2WikiMultiHopQA demonstrate that ConvMem outperforms training-free baselines and avoids the risk of overfitting to parametric priors often observed in RL-trained models on out-of-distribution tasks.

Autonomous robots powered by deep learning face a fundamental auditability challenge: when incidents occur, investigators cannot reconstruct why the system made specific decisions. This paper presents TRACE (Transparent Reasoning Architecture for Credible Execution), a decision framework that ensures every autonomous action can be traced back to sensor evidence through documented causal chains. The framework organizes decision-making into four auditable layers: Semantic Perception for evidence-grounded entity recognition, Belief Reasoning for probabilistic state estimation with causal graphs, Action Synthesis for constraint-aware planning with counterfactual documentation, and Execution Verification for compliance monitoring. TRACE is model-agnostic yet designed to integrate learning-based perception modules (CNNs, transformers) while preserving decision-level auditability. We evaluate the framework using three objective metrics: Evidence Traceability (sensor-to-decision linkage), Decision Reconstructability (post-hoc analysis capability), and Temporal Continuity (audit trail completeness). Experimental evaluation on warehouse robot navigation demonstrates that TRACE achieves 98.6% evidence traceability, 99.0% temporal continuity, and 98.1% decision reconstructability across 500 simulated decision cycles. Post-hoc methods like LIME provide feature attributions but lack the artifact structure needed for decision-level reconstruction. The framework addresses EU AI Act requirements for high-risk system transparency and contributes to Explainable AI for safety-critical autonomous systems.

Modern large language models - transformers and diffusion language models - are built around two canonical algorithmic tasks: prediction and generation. We prove unconditional separations between low-depth quantum computation and the corresponding bounded-resource classical language-model architectures in both regimes. Concretely, we exhibit the following: 1. Distributional separation. We give a distribution that is sampleable by $\textsf{QNC}^0$ circuits (i.e., a family of constant-depth quantum circuits consisting of bounded fan-in gates) that no constant-round diffusion language model ($\textsf{DLM}$) with shallow scheduling and denoising can sample within constant distance, even when allowed sublinear chain-of-thought and output-token revision/remasking events, the very features modern $\textsf{DLM}$s rely on. 2. Functional separation. We exhibit a function computable in $\land \circ \textsf{QNC}^0[\log\log n]$ (i.e., a family of O$(\log\log n)$-depth $\textsf{QNC}^0$ circuits, where $n$ is the input length, followed by a single classical $\mathsf{AND}$ gate) such that any constant-depth decoder-only transformer computing the function must be large: it would have to have width $n^{Ω(1)}$. Together, our work initiates the study of quantum advantage in the era of large language models.

Effective model-based reinforcement learning in stochastic environments requires planning that accounts for predictive uncertainty. Propagating full state distributions analytically offers a principled way to do this, but has traditionally required restrictive policy or reward structures to remain tractable. Consequently, modern deep reinforcement learning has largely retreated to either stochastic sampling, which introduces significant target variance, or deterministic point estimates that ignore predictive covariance entirely. We investigate whether distribution-aware planning is possible without these constraints. Using a quadratic action-value parameterization, we first reduce the Bellman backup to an expectation over the state-value function alone; the key idea is then a compatibility principle between the predictive transition distribution and the value function class, under which this expectation is analytic in the distribution's moments. We instantiate this principle with a Gaussian transition model paired with a radial-basis value function, yielding a closed-form backup that propagates both predictive mean and covariance. Empirically, our approach reduces target variance and yields well-calibrated predictive uncertainty under stochastic observations in continuous control, providing a principled framework for planning with learned distribution models.

With rising global energy demand and growing awareness of climate change and its impacts, the share of renewable energies in the global energy mix continues to grow. Unlike conventional power generation, the output of renewable energy sources cannot be controlled as consistently due to their dependence on environmental conditions. Therefore, reliable prediction of current and future energy production is essential. In this paper, we report findings from two structured literature reviews on real-world renewable energy prediction tasks: wind turbine power curve modeling and photovoltaic power prediction. For the former, we conducted a comprehensive literature review ourselves, while for the latter, we synthesize the key findings regarding frequently selected input features based on an existing survey. Across both domains, our analysis reveals that despite the large number of available monitoring and environmental variables, only limited or unsystematic methods for feature selection exist. To address this gap, we propose Cluster-based Sequential Feature Selection (CSFS), a novel, model-agnostic, clustering-based wrapper method for automatic, efficient, and reliable feature selection in renewable energy prediction pipelines. To support reproducibility and reuse, we provide an open-source implementation of CSFS on GitHub. We empirically evaluate the proposed approach on both use cases and compare it with established feature selection techniques such as wrapper-based sequential feature selection (SFS), filter-based methods, and Random Forest's embedded feature importance. The results show that the wrapper-based methods overall provide better-performing selections of features. CSFS achieves a predictive performance comparable to SFS while reducing computational cost by an average of 21%.

Argument structures represent how individual arguments interact within a discourse. However, leveraging these structures to infer meaningful knowledge remains challenging, as it requires a formal representation of how argumentative influence propagates across the structure. We propose Neuro-symbolic Argumentation Reasoning System (NARS) for performing persuasiveness detection directly from online discussions. The neural component employs retrieval-augmented iterative LLM reasoning to extract bipolar argument structures, while the symbolic component applies gradual argumentation semantics to propagate argumentative influence over the structure. Using the Webis-CMV-20 corpus, we construct CMV2BAS, a dataset of long, multi-threaded ChangeMyView discussions annotated with LLM-derived bipolar argument structures and labeled with delta events (view change vs.\ no change). We investigate whether gradual argumentation semantics can effectively detect persuasiveness, whether augmenting them with argument quality and graph-based centrality improves performance, and whether symbolic reasoning remains necessary in the presence of modern LLMs. NARS achieves F1=0.57 and AUC=0.56 under its best configuration, outperforming zero-shot Qwen3.6:27B and GPT-oss:20B. We identify support-dominant discussions and long argumentative chains as key failure modes limiting attack influence propagation. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of operationalizing formal gradual argumentation semantics over noisy real-world discourse for scalable macro-level persuasion analysis, while highlighting key challenges and directions for future research in neuro-symbolic argumentation reasoning. We release both CMV2BAS dataset and the NARS framework for public use.

Reliable autonomous driving requires full-scene perception that couples foreground objects with dense semantic layout. Recently, 4D millimeter-wave radar has emerged as a robust and affordable sensor, yet its sparse returns make radar-camera fusion necessary for comprehensive scene understanding. Existing radar-camera methods mainly optimize detection, while dual-task systems usually decode boxes and occupancy with limited interaction. To address this gap and advance radar-based multi-task learning, we propose \method, a 4D radar-camera framework for 360$^\circ$ full-scene perception, which models semantic occupancy as a persistent scene state rather than a terminal output. \method{} follows a cross-modal state reasoning paradigm, where the occupancy state is modeled and propagated through stages for coarse-to-fine feature aggregation. Specifically, State-guided BEV Enhancement (SBE) strengthens intra-frame BEV representation, while Doppler-guided Temporal Fusion (DTF) preserves state evidence over longer temporal horizons. Beyond the model, we further extend ManTruckScenes with satellite-map-based generated occupancy labels and pair it with OmniHD-Scenes in a unified cross-dataset detection-and-occupancy protocol. The resulting experiments cover accuracy, robustness, ablation, and efficiency under one radar-camera multi-task evaluation framework. Code and labels will be released upon acceptance.

Scientific ideas rarely start from a blank page. They inherit mechanisms, repair known limitations, and recombine pieces of earlier work, much like biological genomes. Current benchmarks still say little about whether AI systems can follow this inheritance structure. We present IdeaGene-Bench (IG-Bench), a benchmark for scientific lineage reasoning and lineage-grounded idea generation. IG-Bench is organized around the IdeaGene framework: each paper or proposal is represented as a set of minimal, typed, evidence-grounded Idea Genome objects, and a GenomeDiff aligns these objects to record inheritance, mutation, loss, external import, and novel insertion under six operational evolutionary dynamics. The benchmark contains 1,961 golden lineage traces, 1,085 curated Idea Genome objects, and 920 pairwise GenomeDiff records across 10 scientific domains. It supports two evaluations. IG-Exam (42 task types, 1,029 instances) tests closed-form lineage reasoning across Idea Genome abstraction, inheritance tracing, evolutionary reasoning, and lineage verification. IG-Arena evaluates generation with a lineage-conditioned Population-Evolution Score(PES), asking whether a proposal can be inserted as a coherent descendant of a given lineage population: it should inherit the right Idea Genome objects, vary meaningfully from nearby work, and offer selection value for future research. Experiments on 14 LLM-based scientists expose a compositional bottleneck. The strongest system reaches only 27.3% exact accuracy on lineage reasoning, and structured lineage context reshuffles system rankings rather than helping every participant uniformly.

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