Prediction Market Strategy Bot Framework

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, they often struggle with extremely long contexts due to fixed context limits. To address this, sequential approaches like MemAgent extend the effective context by reading text in segments and iteratively updating a fixed-size memory. However, this sequential paradigm suffers from high latency and requires costly reinforcement learning (RL) training, which can lead to overfitting on specific datasets. To overcome these limitations, we propose ConvMem, a training-free, highly parallelizable framework that reformulates long-context reasoning as a hierarchical convolution. Inspired by CNNs, ConvMem treats an LLM prompted with a specific query as a convolutional kernel. This kernel summarizes text segments hierarchically, shortening the reasoning path from a linear chain into a logarithmic tree. Specifically, ConvMem integrates \textit{Configurable Strides} and \textit{Skip Connections} to ensure robust evidence capture and propagation, while employing \textit{Multi-Kernel Convolution} to decompose complex queries into disentangled semantic channels. This design not only mitigates error accumulation but also enables massive parallelization across both text segments and reasoning threads. Experiments on RULER-HotpotQA and RULER-2WikiMultiHopQA demonstrate that ConvMem outperforms training-free baselines and avoids the risk of overfitting to parametric priors often observed in RL-trained models on out-of-distribution tasks.

Autonomous robots powered by deep learning face a fundamental auditability challenge: when incidents occur, investigators cannot reconstruct why the system made specific decisions. This paper presents TRACE (Transparent Reasoning Architecture for Credible Execution), a decision framework that ensures every autonomous action can be traced back to sensor evidence through documented causal chains. The framework organizes decision-making into four auditable layers: Semantic Perception for evidence-grounded entity recognition, Belief Reasoning for probabilistic state estimation with causal graphs, Action Synthesis for constraint-aware planning with counterfactual documentation, and Execution Verification for compliance monitoring. TRACE is model-agnostic yet designed to integrate learning-based perception modules (CNNs, transformers) while preserving decision-level auditability. We evaluate the framework using three objective metrics: Evidence Traceability (sensor-to-decision linkage), Decision Reconstructability (post-hoc analysis capability), and Temporal Continuity (audit trail completeness). Experimental evaluation on warehouse robot navigation demonstrates that TRACE achieves 98.6% evidence traceability, 99.0% temporal continuity, and 98.1% decision reconstructability across 500 simulated decision cycles. Post-hoc methods like LIME provide feature attributions but lack the artifact structure needed for decision-level reconstruction. The framework addresses EU AI Act requirements for high-risk system transparency and contributes to Explainable AI for safety-critical autonomous systems.

Competitive programming has become a key test of large language model reasoning, with international competitions such as IOI and ICPC representing its most challenging settings. We present an end-to-end specialization pipeline combining large-scale problem curation, synthetic reasoning traces, supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and reinforcement learning (RL). Using 22,000 curated problems, we train Nemotron-3-Nano-CC (30B-A3B) with SFT and RL and Nemotron-3-Ultra-CC (550B-A55B) with SFT alone. We further introduce GenCorrect, a feedback-driven test-time compute strategy that iteratively generates, evaluates, and refines diverse solutions. On IOI 2025, Nano-CC improves from 130 points to 291 after post-training and to 468 with GenCorrect, exceeding the gold threshold of 438.3 while Ultra-CC reaches 502. Guided by these results, we develop a competition-specific Ultra-CC system and evaluate it prospectively during IOI 2026. Under the same time, internet-access, and submission constraints as human contestants, it scores 535.4 out of 600, exceeding both the gold threshold of 361.12 and the top human score of 498.27. To our knowledge, this is the first AI system to outscore the highest-scoring human contestant on an IOI problem set.

The performance of LLM-based agents is jointly shaped by the base model and the harness used when interacting with the environment. This exposes them to safety risks in both harmful final responses and multi-step execution trajectories. Existing safety alignment mechanisms often rely on either external harness updates or policy optimization, yet applying either paradigm in isolation fails to bridge runtime control with intrinsic safety. We propose SafeEvolve, an experience-driven self-evolving framework for agent safety alignment. SafeEvolve leverages safety experience from completed on-policy trajectories to drive a continual loop of harness-policy co-evolution. On the harness side, SafeEvolve converts trajectory-level safety evidence into bounded, component-level updates across safety prompt and hierarchical skills, yielding auditable and reversible harness artifacts. On the policy side, SafeEvolve follows a two-stage SFT-RL paradigm, where harness-use SFT bootstraps the policy to actively leverage evolved harness artifacts, and harness-augmented RL further shapes autonomous safety behaviors during multi-step exploration via verifier-decomposed rewards. Through harness-policy co-evolution, SafeEvolve converts safety experience into an evolved runtime harness and improved policy behavior. Experiments on agentic safety benchmarks show that SafeEvolve achieves a stronger safety-utility tradeoff than existing baselines. For Qwen3.5-4B, SafeEvolve achieves a $3\times$ ASR reduction on AgentDojo while improving benign utility from 59.79% to 61.86%.

Modern large language models - transformers and diffusion language models - are built around two canonical algorithmic tasks: prediction and generation. We prove unconditional separations between low-depth quantum computation and the corresponding bounded-resource classical language-model architectures in both regimes. Concretely, we exhibit the following: 1. Distributional separation. We give a distribution that is sampleable by $\textsf{QNC}^0$ circuits (i.e., a family of constant-depth quantum circuits consisting of bounded fan-in gates) that no constant-round diffusion language model ($\textsf{DLM}$) with shallow scheduling and denoising can sample within constant distance, even when allowed sublinear chain-of-thought and output-token revision/remasking events, the very features modern $\textsf{DLM}$s rely on. 2. Functional separation. We exhibit a function computable in $\land \circ \textsf{QNC}^0[\log\log n]$ (i.e., a family of O$(\log\log n)$-depth $\textsf{QNC}^0$ circuits, where $n$ is the input length, followed by a single classical $\mathsf{AND}$ gate) such that any constant-depth decoder-only transformer computing the function must be large: it would have to have width $n^{Ω(1)}$. Together, our work initiates the study of quantum advantage in the era of large language models.

Effective model-based reinforcement learning in stochastic environments requires planning that accounts for predictive uncertainty. Propagating full state distributions analytically offers a principled way to do this, but has traditionally required restrictive policy or reward structures to remain tractable. Consequently, modern deep reinforcement learning has largely retreated to either stochastic sampling, which introduces significant target variance, or deterministic point estimates that ignore predictive covariance entirely. We investigate whether distribution-aware planning is possible without these constraints. Using a quadratic action-value parameterization, we first reduce the Bellman backup to an expectation over the state-value function alone; the key idea is then a compatibility principle between the predictive transition distribution and the value function class, under which this expectation is analytic in the distribution's moments. We instantiate this principle with a Gaussian transition model paired with a radial-basis value function, yielding a closed-form backup that propagates both predictive mean and covariance. Empirically, our approach reduces target variance and yields well-calibrated predictive uncertainty under stochastic observations in continuous control, providing a principled framework for planning with learned distribution models.

Traditional search systems are optimized to retrieve items that strictly match a query, often prioritizing precision over recall. In e-commerce marketplaces and particularly grocery, this paradigm is limiting, as user satisfaction and commercial outcomes depend heavily on the discoverability of substitute, complementary, and thematically related items. In this paper, we present a scalable system for discovery-augmented search that leverages intent-conditioned recall expansion. Our approach generates implicit user intents to expand candidate recall while maintaining relevance. The system addresses the cost-quality tradeoff of generative retrieval through a two-stage hybrid architecture. First, we leverage closed-weight large language models (LLMs) to maximize discoverability for head queries. To extend these benefits to tail queries, we then introduce a finetuned small language model (SLM), trained via LoRA adapters and teacher-student distillation. We evaluate the system using a rigorous dual framework: (a) LLM-as-a-judge metrics validated against human preferences for semantic quality, and (b) end-to-end session-level purchase analysis. Results demonstrate that our approach improves both intent generation quality and downstream retrieval effectiveness, extending discovery coverage from approximately 60% to 80% of query traffic at roughly 30% of the teacher model's inference cost, offering a viable path for deployment in large-scale marketplaces. Beyond relevance gains, discovery-augmented search may serve as a marketplace-balancing mechanism, giving long-tail and emerging supply an opportunity for query-conditioned exposure.

With rising global energy demand and growing awareness of climate change and its impacts, the share of renewable energies in the global energy mix continues to grow. Unlike conventional power generation, the output of renewable energy sources cannot be controlled as consistently due to their dependence on environmental conditions. Therefore, reliable prediction of current and future energy production is essential. In this paper, we report findings from two structured literature reviews on real-world renewable energy prediction tasks: wind turbine power curve modeling and photovoltaic power prediction. For the former, we conducted a comprehensive literature review ourselves, while for the latter, we synthesize the key findings regarding frequently selected input features based on an existing survey. Across both domains, our analysis reveals that despite the large number of available monitoring and environmental variables, only limited or unsystematic methods for feature selection exist. To address this gap, we propose Cluster-based Sequential Feature Selection (CSFS), a novel, model-agnostic, clustering-based wrapper method for automatic, efficient, and reliable feature selection in renewable energy prediction pipelines. To support reproducibility and reuse, we provide an open-source implementation of CSFS on GitHub. We empirically evaluate the proposed approach on both use cases and compare it with established feature selection techniques such as wrapper-based sequential feature selection (SFS), filter-based methods, and Random Forest's embedded feature importance. The results show that the wrapper-based methods overall provide better-performing selections of features. CSFS achieves a predictive performance comparable to SFS while reducing computational cost by an average of 21%.

We formalize the Steiner Traveling Salesman Problem (Steiner-TSP) on Graphs of Convex Sets (GCS), which seeks a minimum-cost closed trajectory through required convex sets while allowing optional transit vertices and revisits. To explore the resulting infinite solution space, we propose a unified branch-and-bound search over rooted walk prefixes. Additive lower-bound-graph costs bound committed prefixes, while a cut-separated connected-flow relaxation lower-bounds the residual cost of visiting every remaining target and returning to the root. Under a uniform positive-cost assumption, best-first traversal terminates after finitely many expansions on every feasible instance without an initial incumbent, whereas depth-first traversal does so once a finite incumbent is available. For a user-specified factor $ε\geq1$, a global lower bound certifies that either strategy's incumbent cost is at most $ε$ times the global optimum. We further demonstrate joint sensing-mode, visitation-order, and continuous-trajectory selection for a mobile-manipulator inspection task, including action precedences expressed in linear temporal logic over finite traces (LTL$_f$). Both traversal strategies find feasible solutions on all benchmark instances within 30s with mean certified optimality gaps of 28.1% and 29.7%, respectively, whereas two recent baselines succeed on only about half of the instances

Reliable autonomous driving requires full-scene perception that couples foreground objects with dense semantic layout. Recently, 4D millimeter-wave radar has emerged as a robust and affordable sensor, yet its sparse returns make radar-camera fusion necessary for comprehensive scene understanding. Existing radar-camera methods mainly optimize detection, while dual-task systems usually decode boxes and occupancy with limited interaction. To address this gap and advance radar-based multi-task learning, we propose \method, a 4D radar-camera framework for 360$^\circ$ full-scene perception, which models semantic occupancy as a persistent scene state rather than a terminal output. \method{} follows a cross-modal state reasoning paradigm, where the occupancy state is modeled and propagated through stages for coarse-to-fine feature aggregation. Specifically, State-guided BEV Enhancement (SBE) strengthens intra-frame BEV representation, while Doppler-guided Temporal Fusion (DTF) preserves state evidence over longer temporal horizons. Beyond the model, we further extend ManTruckScenes with satellite-map-based generated occupancy labels and pair it with OmniHD-Scenes in a unified cross-dataset detection-and-occupancy protocol. The resulting experiments cover accuracy, robustness, ablation, and efficiency under one radar-camera multi-task evaluation framework. Code and labels will be released upon acceptance.

Scientific ideas rarely start from a blank page. They inherit mechanisms, repair known limitations, and recombine pieces of earlier work, much like biological genomes. Current benchmarks still say little about whether AI systems can follow this inheritance structure. We present IdeaGene-Bench (IG-Bench), a benchmark for scientific lineage reasoning and lineage-grounded idea generation. IG-Bench is organized around the IdeaGene framework: each paper or proposal is represented as a set of minimal, typed, evidence-grounded Idea Genome objects, and a GenomeDiff aligns these objects to record inheritance, mutation, loss, external import, and novel insertion under six operational evolutionary dynamics. The benchmark contains 1,961 golden lineage traces, 1,085 curated Idea Genome objects, and 920 pairwise GenomeDiff records across 10 scientific domains. It supports two evaluations. IG-Exam (42 task types, 1,029 instances) tests closed-form lineage reasoning across Idea Genome abstraction, inheritance tracing, evolutionary reasoning, and lineage verification. IG-Arena evaluates generation with a lineage-conditioned Population-Evolution Score(PES), asking whether a proposal can be inserted as a coherent descendant of a given lineage population: it should inherit the right Idea Genome objects, vary meaningfully from nearby work, and offer selection value for future research. Experiments on 14 LLM-based scientists expose a compositional bottleneck. The strongest system reaches only 27.3% exact accuracy on lineage reasoning, and structured lineage context reshuffles system rankings rather than helping every participant uniformly.

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